1. 27 months. No return. As on 30th Sept 2026, the broader equity market ( Nifty 500/Nifty 50) has gone back to the level it saw in mid June 2024

If you invested patiently during this period, you should get a small pat on your back. Though not a big one yet . Equity markets could test your patience further. Reason : your 3-4 year + investment in mid and small cap funds is still showing double digit return. However, at some stage, that might get tested as well. How we behave during that period would define what’s the wealth we create in the long run.

2. But the above has resulted in better value : Eventually public markets care for earnings (profit) growth . And while in the last 5 years, Sensex TRI (Total Return) CAGR is less than 6 % p.a., the earnings growth CAGR has been 13 % p.a. + . This might make the present look ‘dull’, but the future prospects better

3. Data needs an Expert to decipher. Disclaimer : we make a living out of this
We think of long term past (return) as a very reasonable tool to decide on the future. Like I mentioned, it is indeed reasonable. But think of this conversation with your favourite AI platform
Q : Which emerging market has delivered best return in the last 3-5 years ?
Answer : Taiwan
Where does India stand in this ranking ?
Ans : In the last 5 years, fairly low. In USD terms, it has delivered 4.4 % p.a.. Taiwan, S Korea, Mexico and Brazil have done better
Q : Amongst emerging markets, which country has delivered the best 20 year return ? Please rank all of them in USD terms.
Answer : Taiwan wins again( look at the chart below).

And all of this is correct data. Your money would have grown to 7.2 x in 20 years in Taiwan vs India’s 4.1 x ( USD). Huge gap.
But hang on, the story isn’t over yet. What happens if you remove the last 3 years from this calculation, Taiwan’s growth would have come down to 2.6 x vs India’s 3.4x
Bottomline : In the last few weeks, I have thought a lot about the ‘I don’t know, what I don’t know’ quadrant. Most mistakes happen here . Including the ones with money.

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