The War We Don’t Want
Quick note on the recent market corrections. But before that, please remember, pain might
be longer than we want/like, yet shorter than any of the targets/goal horizons that we have
set
I might be writing this a little early (in case the downside continues) 🙂
Q : How much have the Indian equities corrected ?
A : Since 2nd Jan 2026, when we saw last recent peak, Indian equities have corrected by 12 to
13%
Q : Why is India vulnerable ?
A : Energy imports. We depend on imports to take care of energy needs. With the biggest
supply chain being disrupted, the rates have spiked. This puts pressure on us financially and
makes our currency more vulnerable. This does have spiralling effect. The AI threat on Indian
IT has not helped either.
Q : How much have BuckSpeak portfolios corrected ?
A : Depending on each portfolio’s asset allocation ( equity, debt and gold split ) between 3 to
9 % approximately. Median around 6-7 %
Q : Why have we fallen less than indices ?
A : Diversification : Debt, Gold and Global have provided necessary cushion. We haven’t done
any lumpsum in mid and small caps since mid 2024
Q : Is this the biggest fall since covid ?
A : Interestingly enough, exactly at the same time last year March of 2025, our markets had
gone down below the current levels. The investors did not get enough time to ‘panic’ , since
the recovery was quick. Also the tariffs are far less ‘visually’ impactful compared to a war.
Hence this one might impact us more deeply ( a bit like covid, though not the same).
Q 4 : I have started investing into Indian equities since early 2024 and have seen all my gains
being wiped out. Wouldn’t I be better investing in other asset classes ?
Answer: Equity is far more uncertain in first few years, with time, your gains become ‘stickier’
. And for the years that you lose, equity market makes up for them, if you show enough love
and patience :-). Hang in there. Having said that, we could have done more of Gold in some of
our portfolios ( in hindsight alone).
Q 5 : When would markets recover ?
Answer : While we can’t answer with absolute certainty, with time, the probability ( of
recovery) increases. Please continue to have a 3-4 year horizon from current levels. However,
the pain can be deeper, before it gets better.
Q 6 : On last few occasions, deep corrections have been followed with swift recovery ( GFC in
2008-09 and Covid in Mar 2020). Can we expect the same trajectory this time around ?
Answer : Human mind searches for familiar patterns. In investing that can lead to errors. Equity markets don’t have any one particular way of behaving. Hence, please don’t invest money with a 1-2 year horizon. In our book, 4-5 year is the min ( have reduced it by a year or two, due to this correction)
Q 7 : Will it make better sense to exit equities ( partially/ fully) and enter when the world
‘stabilizes’ ?
Ans : There is enough data to suggest that if we miss some of the best days in the market, the
impact on the portfolio is disproportionate. The fun fact is more than 60 % of these best days
occur within a fortnight of some of the worst days.
Having said that, the equity market do not stabilise and knock on our door to participate. As
Warren Buffet says, ‘ If it’s in the news, it’s in the price’. By sitting out now, we run the risk of
not being able to deploy.
Q : Is this a great time to deploy into equities ?
A : We haven’t yet changed our run rate of deployment and are watching the levels closely.
We continue to allocate lumpsums only in large caps/diversified space and in mid and small
caps through staggered manner. While the large caps have fallen as much as the others in this
fall, they have become cheaper as well. At some stage though, we would love to invest
lumpsums in mid and small caps. However, if you have cash today, don’t keep it idle.
Q : What if I don’t have incremental cash to deploy ?
A : BuckSpeak has amongst the highest debt ( as a % of our overall assets ) in the Industry.
Even if you don’t have incremental cash, we have it for you and won’t mind moving from debt
to equity, if we find the levels attractive.
One of the easiest hacks during these times, is to avoid looking at your portfolio. This too shall
pass 🙂 And this is how Equity markets have done in wars
Israel conflict: 3M, 1Y and 3Y periods not yet elapsed. 1M return (~−6.7%) is approximate,
computed from ~82,000 (1 Feb 2026) to ~76,700 (18 Mar 2026).
Below are a few instances where we had pointed out that market valuations were high.
Disclaimer: Any calculation shown in this post is only for illustrative purposes and based on
prevailing tax laws and the past performance of a fund or investment is not an indicator of it’s
future performance. Data used in this post has been taken from several sources. Neither
BuckSpeak nor any of its employees vouches for the authenticity of the data. Investing in
mutual fund comes with market risk. Please read all Scheme Information Documents (SID) /Key
Information Memorandum (KIM) and addendums issued thereto from time to time
information and other related documents carefully before investing. Past performance is not
indicative of future returns. Please consider your specific investment requirements before
choosing a fund. Investment should be done in consultation with a financial
planner/consultant, who would recommend products aligned to your needs and risk profile.
There are no guaranteed returns. Neither BUCKSPEAK NOR ITS EMPLOYEES, makes any
warranties or representations, express or implied, on products offered and would be
responsible for any losses from these investments. The company earns commission from Asset
Management Companies when the user buys mutual funds. However, the recommendations
on funds is not influenced by the commission earned.
